European Observatory of Drone IncidentsForecast and trends
What is happening more than usual and what is likely to happen. Only what, checked against the past, does better than the usual frequency and than “tomorrow same as today” is published; each part says how it is checked.
Tonight at the border
Night of 16/10/2026 to 17/10/2026: a war drone crossing into or falling in the country
Romania
1 in 10 nights like this one (13%)
Usual for this country: 11 in 100 nights.
What it depends on today:
- drones launched at Ukraine: 286 on average over the last three nights (last night, 149) · raises the risk
- nights with drones launched from Crimea, the southern route: 6 of the last 7 · raises the risk
- border incidents in Romania in the last 7 days: 1 · raises the risk
How it is checked
Checked against 470 nights since 01/07/2025, each using only earlier data. There was a drone on 53 (11 in 100, the usual). Of the 53 nights with a drone, 32 were among the quarter of nights with the highest risk.
| When it said | Nights | With a drone |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 5% | 346 | 17 |
| 5 to 10% | 45 | 15 |
| 10 to 20% | 45 | 12 |
| 20 to 40% | 34 | 9 |
Moldova
1 in 10 nights like this one (14%)
Usual for this country: 7 in 100 nights.
What it depends on today:
- drones launched at Ukraine: 286 on average over the last three nights (last night, 149) · lowers the risk
- nights with drones launched from Crimea, the southern route: 6 of the last 7 · raises the risk
- border incidents in Moldova in the last 7 days: 2 · raises the risk
How it is checked
Checked against 470 nights since 01/07/2025, each using only earlier data. There was a drone on 35 (7 in 100, the usual). Of the 35 nights with a drone, 24 were among the quarter of nights with the highest risk.
| When it said | Nights | With a drone |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 5% | 404 | 16 |
| 5 to 10% | 26 | 2 |
| 10 to 20% | 14 | 5 |
| 20 to 40% | 26 | 12 |
Streaks by country
- Moldova: since 10/08/2026: 27 incidents against 2.9 usual (9.2 times) · steady
- Romania: since 07/09/2026: 15 incidents against 5 usual (3 times) · steady
How it is checked
Checked against 56 streak weeks since July 2025: the following week had 90 incidents where normal was 17.3. It counts events, not news: each incident once, on the date it happened.
What has changed
July 2026 to September 2026, against the previous twelve months. What has not changed is not listed.
Ukraine, what is targeted (impacts with a known target, official channels with data throughout)
- fuel: 18% (42 of 234), against 7% usually · up
- energy: 13% (30 of 234), against 19% usually · down
- industry: 34% (80 of 234), against 26% usually · up
How it is checked
Checked since September 2025: of 21 changes flagged, the following month went the same way in 17.
Europe, type of incident
- Incursion: 37% (38 of 102), against 19% usually · up
- Airport disruption: 13% (13 of 102), against 33% usually · down
How it is checked
Checked since September 2025: of 10 changes flagged, the following month went the same way in 10.
Each figure is computed only from earlier data and is published only if, checked back night by night or week by week, it does better than the usual frequency and than “tomorrow same as today”. Computed on 16/10/2026 · 12:17 UTC. How it is computed and scored